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The primary driver of this rebound is not macro easing, but internal crypto supply-demand dynamics. While the DXY was flat at 100.87, the S&P 500 was flat at 7,483, and the Nasdaq was flat at 25,833, BTC rose 3.59% to $63,691 and ETH rose 5.31% to $1,788. Even amid Fed meeting wait-and-see positioning and interest rate uncertainty, the rebound was driven not by equity correlation but by short covering and a turn in ETF inflows. Of the $17.1 million in 24-hour liquidations, short positions accounted for a large share, and on July 2, BTC spot ETF inflows in the $200 million range ended 10 consecutive trading days of outflows. However, on a weekly basis, BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $526.64 million, and ETH spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $13.67 million. Slower on-chain activity and increased exchange deposits indicate that this is still largely a technical rebound. The key transmission channel was the ECB’s shift to waiting for data → EUR/USD strength to 1.14 → DXY upside capped → easing of BTC’s dollar-denominated downside. The simultaneous gains of gold at 2.05%, silver at 4.75%, and BTC at 3.59%, along with a 0.54% decline in WTI, are consistent with the same context. Weak oil prices reduce the need for the ECB to tighten further, and the absence of a stronger dollar is supportive for alternative stores of value. Crypto’s relative strength amid semiconductor corrections and a stagnant U.S. equity market suggests that some capital rotated into non-correlated alternative beta. However, BTC dominance at 55.78% and ETH dominance at 9.43% indicate a defensive preference centered on BTC rather than broader altcoin expansion. ETH strength also looks more like a short squeeze than the start of alt season. For Korean investors, KRW weakness is also important. USD/KRW moved between 1,557 won and 1,525 won before falling 0.62% to 1,542 won, but this appears more consistent with authorities’ smoothing than with a trend reversal. This week’s directional bias is likely to depend on the interpretation of the FOMC minutes and the continuity of ETF flows. If the minutes are read as dovish, lower long-term rate expectations could support further gains in gold and BTC. In that case, BTC could retest $64,000-$65,000, and ETH could challenge the upper end of $1,805 again. Semiconductors and growth stocks could also attempt a 2-3% technical rebound. Conversely, if the minutes are hawkish, a retest of DXY 101, a move back below 1.14 in EUR/USD, and a 1-2% correction in equities are possible. In that scenario, BTC could retest $61,000-$62,000, and if ETF inflows fail to hold, a test of support at $60,000 becomes more likely. In particular, a surge in exchange deposits may be a hedge or standby sell signal ahead of macro events, so supply pressure should be viewed more conservatively than a single day of ETF inflows. Regulation is also a variable for the next session. Some of the developments related to MiCA enforcement, the CLARITY Act, stablecoin rights protection, sanctions on more than 130 Tron wallets, and Revolut’s plan to delist USDT in August were reported after the 09:00 KST pricing on July 5 and may not yet be reflected. Tighter regulation could translate into discounts for DeFi and unregulated channels, while progress in institutionalization could lead to premiums for exchange, stablecoin, payments, and tokenization infrastructure. From a trader’s perspective, a BTC-centric defensive long remains the priority. Confirmation of the trend should be judged less by whether BTC holds $63,000 and more by the continuity of net ETF inflows, slowing exchange inflows, and whether ETH and regulation-beneficiary sectors expand together without a sharp drop in BTC dominance. In KRW terms, if the upper end of USD/KRW resumes moving higher, BTC’s perceived return in won terms will be protected, but the risk of chasing without FX hedging will also increase amid stronger intervention by the authorities.