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The essence of this rebound is not an economic recovery, but a softening in the path of rates and the dollar. U.S. June payrolls came in at 57,000, below the expected 113,000, while May and April were also revised down by 74,000. The sequence is: slower employment growth → easing concerns about further Fed tightening → dollar weakness → a rebound in crypto and Korean growth stocks. The CME FedWatch implied probability of a September rate hike fell from 64% to 54%, while USD/KRW declined 1.40% and EUR/USD rose 0.55%. WTI rose only 0.13%, but gold gained 1.81% and silver 3.58%, showing that this session responded more to liquidity expectations than to growth expectations. BTC rebounded from a low of $59,532 to $62,514, up 1.67%, while ETH rose 3.42% to $1,756, showing higher beta. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat at 0.00%, but the KOSPI surged 5.76%, confirming that Korean semiconductors and crypto traded as the same rate-sensitive, high-beta assets. Supply-demand conditions are also showing signs of improvement. U.S. BTC spot ETFs shifted to a net inflow of $221.7 million after 10 consecutive sessions of outflows, but IBIT saw $40.43 million of outflows, suggesting selective reallocation rather than a broad return of risk appetite. ETH also posted net inflows for a second consecutive day, with ETHA recording $29.74 million of inflows. However, with BTC dominance at 55.66% and ETH dominance at 9.40%, this still reflects early ETH relative strength rather than an alt season. In addition, while whales accumulated $16.7 billion worth of BTC over the past two weeks during the ETF outflow period, the 49,000 BTC inflow to exchanges on June 30 and the increase in simultaneous ETH-altcoin deposits signal short-term supply and higher volatility. In Korea, the planned taxation starting in January next year and lingering allegations of listing involvement remain, so even if global easing continues, domestic altcoins face substantial discount factors. The key in the next session is whether sustained ETF inflows or rising exchange deposits will dominate price action. Given the time lag, the BTC price of $62,514 and ETH price of $1,756 at 09:00 KST on July 3 may not have fully reflected the 13:40 KST news of net BTC ETF inflows and the 22:42 KST news of a surge in exchange deposits. In the bullish scenario, continued dollar weakness and extended ETF inflows are crucial. If DXY comes under pressure again and BTC ETF inflows persist for 2-3 days, with IBIT also turning to inflows, BTC could break above $62,762 and attempt to retest $65,000. ETH could continue outperforming BTC if ETF inflows persist, with an additional short-term rebound of 3-5% possible. Conversely, if DXY rebounds or the 49,000 BTC inflow to exchanges translates into actual selling, BTC could retest the $59,500-$60,000 range. The KOSPI and crypto could also pull back 2-3%. From a trader’s perspective, rather than chasing the move, it is more effective to wait for confirmation that BTC is holding above $60,000 and that ETH ETF flows remain sustained. Positioning should remain BTC-centric, while ETH is better treated as a selective relative-strength trade. Altcoins should be viewed cautiously in light of domestic regulatory and tax risks. Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered’s direct stablecoin service and the IMF’s remarks accepting tokenization support integration into the institutional framework. However, the IMF’s warnings about shock transmission and India’s stringent controls are widening regulatory differentiation by country. Accordingly, the long-term theme is benefiting from stablecoin-tokenization infrastructure, while short-term trading should focus on confirming a BTC bottom and tracking ETH relative strength.