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This rebound is an event-driven rally in which policy expectations temporarily offset macro headwinds. Crude oil at $101.94, which stimulated inflation expectations and reinforced the Fed’s hawkish stance, and the U.S. 10-year yield briefly breaking above 5.0% intraday were inherently headwinds for BTC. However, as the 10-year yield eased to 4.944% into the close and crude oil also pulled back from its highs, BTC rebounded from $76,453 to $79,436 and is currently up 2.19% over 24 hours at $78,518. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq declined 0.56%, but ETH rose 2.20% to $2,532 and SOL gained 3.62% to $102.84, showing relative strength versus equities. That said, this reflects a combination of falling yields and policy events rather than decoupling. Expectations around the CLARITY Act and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill triggered a short squeeze, and of the $109.96 million in liquidations over the past hour, $105.70 million, or 96%, came from shorts. The magnitude of the rebound was amplified by derivatives, while signals of a spot trend reversal remain weak. BTC dominance at 58.48% also indicates the absence of a broad altcoin rally. Regulatory tailwinds are greater for ETH, XRP, and major altcoins than for BTC, but capital still remains concentrated in BTC and large-cap names. Institutional flows also favor ETH over BTC. Weekly BTC spot ETF flows showed $463 million in net outflows, while ETH spot ETF flows showed $197 million in net inflows. Bitmine’s additional purchase of 27,180 ETH aligns with the trend of revaluing ETH as both a policy beneficiary and a cash flow-generating asset. The rise in stablecoin market cap to $284.1 billion and trading volume to $82.1 billion provides a liquidity buffer, but the Aave Monad USDT0 pool also revealed the fragility of on-chain dollar liquidity, with only $4.4 million withdrawable out of $55.9 million deposited. In Korea, the exchange rate effect has been significant at USD/KRW 1,345, so KRW-based strength and USD-based strength should be viewed separately. This week’s key variables are the combination of the FOMC statement and congressional votes, and the direction is likely to be determined by the relative strength of rates versus policy expectations. The upside scenario would be a 25bp rate cut accompanied by a softening of further tightening signals and WTI moving below $100. If oil declines, expected inflation eases, and the 10-year yield falls 10-15bp, BTC could attempt to break back above $79,436 and establish itself above $80,000. In that case, ETH and SOL could see a 2-4% beta rebound, and if the CLARITY Act advances, ETH and XRP could outperform on a relative basis. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill is a framework that elevates BTC beyond a short-term catalyst and positions it as a candidate strategic national asset. However, sustainability will only be confirmed when public-sector and corporate treasury demand offsets ETF outflows. The downside scenario is one in which higher for longer is reinforced and the 10-year yield again tests 5.0%. A renewed rise in yields to 5% could trigger an additional 1-2% correction in the Nasdaq and open the door to an attempt to break below $76,453 in BTC. If the CLARITY Act is rejected, regulatory expectations could unwind quickly and altcoins are likely to underperform BTC. Traders would be better served by reacting after event confirmation rather than chasing the move. The core holding should remain BTC, while relative value favors ETH. For altcoins, it is better to concentrate on names with clear institutional tailwinds such as ETH, XRP, and SOL. A broader alt rally bet is more appropriate only after BTC dominance falls below 58.48% and the bills are confirmed to have passed. Korean investors should watch the oil price, the U.S. 10-year yield, and the USD/KRW 1,350 level together, and avoid mistaking exchange-rate defense for real strength.