📊 chard-mktboard

2026-09-02 08:34 KST · Daily Market Dashboard

Key Points

  • 유가발 인플레 충격: 중동 리스크로 유가와 장기금리가 동반 오르며 크립토가 위험자산처럼 반응해, 단기 변동성 확대에 대비할 필요가 커졌다.
  • BTC 수급 흔들림: 현물 ETF가 순유출로 돌아서며 8만2000달러 돌파가 지연됐고, 기관 자금 흐름 재개 여부가 단기 방향의 핵심이 됐다.
  • 달러강세와 금리압력: DXY 상승과 미국 장기금리 고점권은 BTC의 안전자산 서사를 약화시키며, 달러 기준보다 원화 기준 변동성을 키울 수 있다.
  • 알트코인 베타 확대: ETH와 SOL이 BTC보다 더 크게 밀리며 고베타 성장주처럼 거래돼, 금리 상승기엔 알트 익스포저의 흔들림이 커질 가능성이 높다.
  • 재정확대와 희소자산: 한국의 슈퍼예산과 재정확대는 장기적으로 통화가치 훼손 우려를 자극할 수 있어, BTC의 디지털 희소자산 서사를 다시 부각시킬 수 있다.
  • Oil-Driven Inflation Shock: Middle East risks have pushed up oil prices and long-term yields in tandem, making crypto behave like a risk asset and increasing the need to prepare for near-term volatility.
  • BTC Supply-Demand Weakness: Spot ETFs have turned to net outflows, delaying a break above $82,000 and making the resumption of institutional flows the key driver of short-term direction.
  • Dollar Strength and Yield Pressure: Rising DXY and elevated U.S. long-term yields are weakening BTC’s safe-haven narrative and may amplify KRW-denominated volatility versus USD terms.
  • Altcoin Beta Expands: ETH and SOL are underperforming BTC by a wider margin and are trading more like high-beta growth stocks, so alt exposure is likely to become more volatile in a higher-rate backdrop.
  • Fiscal Expansion and Scarcity: Korea’s super-budget and fiscal expansion could heighten long-term concerns about currency debasement, potentially reinforcing BTC’s narrative as a digital scarce asset.
  • Naftos sukeltas infliacijos smūgis: Artimųjų Rytų rizika kelia naftos ir ilgalaikes palūkanų normas kartu, todėl kriptovaliutos reaguoja kaip rizikingas turtas ir didėja poreikis ruoštis trumpalaikiam kintamumui.
  • BTC pasiūlos svyravimai: Spot ETF vėl tapus grynaisiais nutekėjimais, 82 000 JAV dolerių ribos įveikimas vėlavo, o institucinių srautų atsinaujinimas tapo pagrindiniu trumpalaikės krypties veiksniu.
  • Dolerių stiprėjimas ir palūkanų spaudimas: DXY kilimas ir JAV ilgalaikių palūkanų aukštos zonos silpnina BTC saugaus prieglobsčio naratyvą ir gali padidinti svyravimus, skaičiuojamus korėjiečių vonais, labiau nei JAV doleriais.
  • Altkoinų beta didėjimas: ETH ir SOL krenta labiau nei BTC ir prekiaujami tarsi aukštos beta augimo akcijos, todėl palūkanų kilimo laikotarpiu altpozicijų svyravimai gali smarkiai didėti.
  • Fiskalinė plėtra ir stygiaus turtas: Pietų Korėjos superbiudžetas ir fiskalinė plėtra ilgainiui gali kelti susirūpinimą dėl valiutos vertės silpnėjimo, o tai gali iš naujo sustiprinti BTC kaip skaitmeninio stygiaus turto naratyvą.

Wavebridge View

BTC 중심의 구조적 강세 기조는 유지되지만, 1~6개월 구간에서는 매크로 충격에 따른 박스권 등락이 우선이라고 본다.

  1. 1 미-이란 충돌로 촉발된 유가 급등과 장기금리 상승이 크립토 약세의 1차 원인이며, BTC도 안전자산보다 금리 민감 위험자산처럼 거래되면서 8만2000달러 돌파가 지연되는 국면으로 판단한다.
  2. 2 비트코인 현물 ETF의 순유출 전환은 단기 수급 부담이지만 블랙록 중심 유입과 글로벌 ETF 자금 유입이 여전히 살아 있어, 중기적으로는 BTC를 중심으로 기관성 수요가 다시 가격을 받칠 여지가 크다고 본다.
  3. 3 ETH와 SOL은 펀더멘털 뉴스가 견조해도 금리 상승기에는 고베타 성장주처럼 더 크게 흔들리는 구조이며, 따라서 알트 전반은 BTC 대비 상대적 약세 속에서 선별적 회복이 나타나는 흐름이 합리적이다.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
다만 WTI가 90달러대 고착과 DXY 강세가 이어지면 기대인플레와 실질금리 압박이 재차 커져 BTC의 7만6500~7만9000달러 재시험 가능성이 높아진다. 반대로 중동 긴장이 완화되고 ETF 자금이 다시 순유입으로 돌아서면 BTC는 8만달러대 재안착을 시도할 수 있으나, 그 경우에도 알트보다 BTC 우위 구도는 당분간 유지될 것으로 본다.

The structural bullish trend centered on BTC remains intact, but over the 1- to 6-month horizon, we judge that range-bound trading driven by macro shocks will take precedence.

  1. 1 the initial driver of crypto weakness is the surge in oil prices and rise in long-term yields triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, and BTC is being traded more like an interest-rate-sensitive risk asset than a safe haven, delaying a breakout above $82,000.
  2. 2 the shift in spot Bitcoin ETF flows to net outflows is a near-term funding headwind, but with inflows led by BlackRock and global ETF capital inflows still holding up, we view institutional demand as likely to re-emerge and support BTC prices over the medium term.
  3. 3 even if ETH and SOL have solid fundamental news, they are structurally more volatile during periods of rising rates, like high-beta growth stocks; accordingly, it is reasonable to expect selective rebounds across altcoins, but with relative weakness versus BTC persisting.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
However, if WTI remains entrenched in the $90s and DXY strength continues, inflation expectations and real-rate pressure could intensify again, raising the likelihood that BTC retests the $76,500 to $79,000 range. Conversely, if Middle East tensions ease and ETF flows return to net inflows, BTC may attempt to reestablish itself above $80,000, though even in that case we expect BTC to retain its relative advantage over altcoins for some time.

BTC pagrindu matome struktūrinį rinkos stiprumą.

  1. 1 net ir esant FED vanagiškai retorikai, 10 m. obligacijų pajamingumui ties 4,75% ir WTI naftai pasiekus 86 USD, BTC ir ETH kilo dėl spot paklausos, o ETF bei įmonių iždo pirkimai apgynė maždaug 77 100 USD zonos dugną, rodydami, kad trumpalaikės ir vidutinės trukmės tendencijos centras labiau remiasi paklausa nei makro veiksniais.
  2. 2 rinkos viduje stebimas ne altų plėtros, o BTC dominavimo ties 59% gynybinis režimas, o ETH taip pat formuoja atskirą paklausos atramą dėl „Bitmine“ didelio masto įsigijimų, todėl BTC ir ETH santykinis stiprumas yra pagrįstas.
  3. 3 DXY laikantis ties 99 punktų zona ir kartu plečiantis stabiliųjų kriptovaliutų instituciniam naudojimui, palūkanų šokas per dolerio ir likvidumo kanalus neturėtų pernelyg sustiprėti, todėl kripto rinkos žemyn nukreipta amplitudė tikėtina išliks ribota.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
Tačiau, jei 10 m. pajamingumas toliau kils ir kartu stiprės doleris, arba jei ETF įplaukos sulėtės, BTC 77 100 USD palaikymas ir ETH santykinis stiprumas gali susvyrėti. Tokiu atveju pirmiausia būtų spaudžiama visa altkoinų rinka, o rugsėjo politikos signalai ir kitoje Azijos sesijoje pasirodysiančios naujienos, mūsų vertinimu, taps pagrindiniais padidėjusio nepastovumo veiksniais.

① Daily Snapshot

Crypto

AssetPriceDailyMTDYTD
Bitcoin $77,349.23 ▼ -1.53% +0.00% -12.83%
└ Volume $30.48B ▼ -0.41% +0.00% +61.71%
Ethereum $2,415.66 ▼ -2.07% +0.00% -19.49%
└ Volume $14.06B ▲ +2.02% +0.00% +36.95%
Solana $99.90 ▼ -3.01% +0.00% -21.19%
XRP $1.35 ▼ -2.32% +0.00% -28.27%
BNB $681.12 ▼ -1.43% +0.00% -21.08%

Macro

AssetPriceDailyMTDYTD
S&P 500 7631.47 ▼ -0.71% +0.00% +11.27%
NASDAQ 26099.77 ▼ -1.03% +0.00% +12.33%
DXY 99.65 ▲ +0.23% +0.00% +1.25%
Gold 4376.20 ▼ -1.24% +0.00% +1.43%
WTI Crude 90.78 ▲ +5.85% +0.00% +58.37%
KOSPI 6820.02 ▼ -1.34% +8.99% +58.25%

② Charts

BTC 30d
BTC · 30d
BTC Volume 30d
BTC Volume · 30d
ETH 30d
ETH · 30d
ETH Volume 30d
ETH Volume · 30d

③ Sentiment & Global

Fear & Greed
69 Greed
Yesterday 62
Total Market Cap
$2.62T
▼ -4.11%
24h Volume
$81.91B
Korea 5 share 1.92%
BTC Dominance
59.12%
ETH 11.10%
F&G 30d

④ Stablecoins (Market Cap)

AssetMarket CapDailyMTDYTD
USDT · Tether $183.35B ▼ -0.08% +0.00% -2.09%
USDC · USD Coin $73.56B ▼ -0.52% +0.00% -2.32%
DAI · Dai $4.79B ▬ +0.04% +0.00% +6.62%
FDUSD · First Digital USD $335.64M ▲ +0.96% +0.00% -34.99%

⑤ ETF Net Flow (source: bitbo.io)

AssetDateDailyMTDYTDLifetime
BTC 2026-09-02 $200.86M $199.78M -$2.94B $45.92B
ETH 무료 ETH ETF flow 소스 없음

⑥ Exchange Volumes (24h Spot)

Global Spot CEX (Top 250)
$92.16B
CoinGecko aggregate
Korea 5 total
$1.77B
1.92% of total

Korean Exchanges

Exchange24h VolShareDailyMTDYTD
Upbit $1.04B 1.13% ▼ -60.53% +0.00% -51.00%
Bithumb $623.66M 0.68% ▼ -13.40% +0.00% -18.88%
Coinone $84.64M 0.09% ▼ -16.53% +0.00%
Korbit $15.86M 0.02% ▲ +41.40% +0.00% +13.76%
Gopax $360.26K 0.00% ▲ +45.70% +0.00% -63.02%

Global Top 5

Exchange24h VolShareDailyMTDYTD
Binance $9.23B 10.01% ▲ +63.65% +0.00% -12.64%
Coinbase $1.58B 1.71% ▲ +49.54% +0.00% +4.02%
Bybit $2.30B 2.50% ▲ +42.27% +0.00% -19.06%
OKX $1.74B 1.89% ▲ +27.50% +0.00% +42.61%
Bitget $786.50M 0.85% ▲ +22.19% +0.00% -22.38%

⑦ Derivatives (Perpetuals)

CEX vs DEX Aggregate (source: CoinGecko · all-contracts aggregate)

CEX Aggregate OI
$186.99B
90 exchanges · 24h Vol $411.98B
DEX Aggregate OI
$18.02B
10 exchanges · 24h Vol $16.49B
DEX Share
8.79%
OI share · Vol share 3.85%

Top DEX Perp Exchanges

ExchangeOI (USD)24h VolPerp pairs
Hyperliquid (Futures) $13.64B $8.64B 397
Aster (Futures) $2.31B $2.23B 564
Lighter $1.01B $1.77B 206
edgeX $577.57M $1.24B 218
Ostium $178.36M $2.60M 44
ApeX Omni $141.98M $1.58B 350
Pacifica $109.23M $915.67M 76
dYdX Chain $39.58M $20.24M 119
Paradex $9.74M $6.57M 85
SynFutures $792.17K $82.88M 3

OI & Funding by Asset (source: CoinGecko · multi-exchange · APR assumes 8h funding)

AssetAggregate OIDailyMTDYTDAvg Funding (APR)
BTC $21.84B ▲ +0.39% +0.39% +7.73%
ETH $15.03B ▼ -1.24% -1.24% +3.34%

BTC · By Exchange (Top 5)

ExchangeSymbolOI (USD)ShareFunding (APR)
Binance (Futures) BTCUSDT $8.42B 38.56% +9.00%
Bybit (Futures) BTCUSDT $4.24B 19.42% +2.52%
Bitget Futures BTCUSDT_UMCBL $2.70B 12.34% +10.95%
Binance (Futures) BTCUSDC $1.45B 6.66% +8.45%
KuCoin Futures XBTUSDTM $1.39B 6.36% +7.99%

⑧ Today's Drivers & Outlook

이번 크립토 약세의 1차 원인은 업계 악재보다 유가발 할인율 충격이다. 미-이란 충돌 심화 → 호르무즈 공급 차질 우려 → WTI 90.73달러, +5.80% → 인플레 재가속 우려 → 미 30년물 5.274% 고점권과 DXY 99.65, +0.23%로 이어지며 BTC는 77,233달러, -1.68% 밀렸고 ETH는 2,412달러, -2.22%, SOL은 99.70달러, -3.20% 하락했다. S&P500 -0.71%, 나스닥 -1.03%, 엔비디아 -1.51%도 같은 맥락이다. 금 -1.25%와 BTC -1.68% 동반 약세는 BTC가 안전자산보다 금리 민감 위험자산에 가깝게 거래됐음을 보여준다. 여기에 비트코인 현물 ETF가 9거래일 유입 뒤 2억200만달러 순유출로 돌아서며 최근 23% 상승 후 8만2000달러 돌파 실패 구간의 차익실현을 키웠다. 다만 블랙록 주도 2억1700만달러 유입 보도와 글로벌 금·비트코인 ETF 5일간 9.6조원 유입은 중기 기관 수요가 아직 살아 있음을 시사한다. 전체 시총 2.62조달러, BTC 도미넌스 59.12%, ETH 11.10%는 자금 이탈보다 BTC 방어 쏠림을 뜻한다. ETH의 5만3500개 추가 매수와 SOL의 수수료 최고, OpenSea 지원, 2000만달러 조달 추진은 펀더멘털상 우호적이지만 일부는 가격 기준 시점 이후 보도라 다음 세션 반영 가능성이 크다. 단기 방향은 경제지표보다 중동 리스크의 확산 여부가 좌우할 가능성이 크다. WTI가 90달러선을 지키거나 91.01달러를 재돌파하면 유가 고착 → 기대인플레 상승 → 장기금리 5-15bp 추가 상승 경로가 열리며 BTC의 8만2000달러 돌파는 더 지연되고 7만6500-7만9000달러 박스 재시험 가능성이 높다. 이 경우 나스닥과 반도체가 1-3% 더 밀릴 수 있고, 크립토에선 ETH와 SOL이 BTC보다 큰 베타로 흔들릴 전망이다. 반대로 충돌 완화 신호가 나오면 WTI는 85-88달러로 되돌림 가능성이 있고 금리도 5-10bp 안정되며 BTC의 8만달러대 재안착 시도가 가능하다. 다만 유로존 CPI 3.3%, 미국 30년물 5.274%, 한국 821조원 초슈퍼예산과 미래기금 162조원은 채권에 비우호적이라 반등 지속성은 제한될 수 있다. 트레이더는 방향 추격보다 레인지 대응이 유리하다. ETF 일간 자금이 다시 플러스로 전환되면 BTC-ETH 비중 확대를, WTI 90달러대와 DXY 강세가 지속되면 알트 익스포저 축소를 우선해야 한다. 한국 투자자는 USD/KRW가 오전 1,367원에서 뉴욕장 1,374.20원으로 확인된 점도 봐야 한다. 달러 강세가 이어지면 원화 기준 크립토 변동성은 달러 기준보다 더 커질 수 있다. 중장기적으로는 재정확대와 법정통화 희석 우려가 다시 부각될 때 BTC 희소자산 서사가 재강화될 잠재력도 남아 있다.
The primary cause of the current crypto weakness is an oil-driven discount rate shock rather than industry-specific negative news. Escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict → concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz → WTI at $90.73, +5.80% → renewed inflation reacceleration fears → the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield at 5.274% near its highs and the DXY at 99.65, +0.23%, led BTC to fall to $77,233, -1.68%, while ETH declined to $2,412, -2.22%, and SOL to $99.70, -3.20%. The S&P 500 -0.71%, Nasdaq -1.03%, and Nvidia -1.51% moved in the same context. The concurrent weakness in gold -1.25% and BTC -1.68% shows that BTC has been trading more like a rate-sensitive risk asset than a safe haven. In addition, BTC spot ETF flows turned to a net outflow of $202 million after nine consecutive trading days of inflows, amplifying profit-taking in the range where BTC has recently risen 23% but failed to break above $82,000. That said, reports of $217 million in inflows led by BlackRock and five-day inflows of 9.6 trillion won into global gold and Bitcoin ETFs suggest that medium-term institutional demand remains intact. Total market capitalization of $2.62 trillion, BTC dominance of 59.12%, and ETH at 11.10% indicate a concentration in BTC defense rather than capital flight. ETH’s additional purchase of 53,500 coins and SOL’s record-high fees, OpenSea support, and plans to raise $20 million are fundamentally constructive, but some of these reports were published after the relevant price reference point, so they are likely to be reflected in the next session. Short-term direction is likely to be driven more by the extent of Middle East risk expansion than by economic data. If WTI holds above $90 or reclaims $91.01, the path opens for oil to remain elevated → inflation expectations to rise → long-term yields to increase by an additional 5-15bp, further delaying BTC’s break above $82,000 and increasing the likelihood of a retest of the $76,500-$79,000 range. In that case, Nasdaq and semiconductors could fall another 1-3%, and in crypto, ETH and SOL are expected to show higher beta than BTC. Conversely, if signs of conflict easing emerge, WTI could retrace to $85-$88 and rates could stabilize by 5-10bp, allowing BTC another attempt to re-establish itself in the $80,000 range. However, Eurozone CPI at 3.3%, the U.S. 30-year yield at 5.274%, and South Korea’s super-budget of 821 trillion won plus 162 trillion won in future funds are unfavorable for bonds, so the sustainability of any rebound may be limited. For traders, range trading is preferable to chasing direction. If daily ETF flows turn positive again, increasing BTC-ETH exposure is preferable; if WTI remains in the $90s and DXY strength persists, reducing alt exposure should take priority. Korean investors should also note that USD/KRW was confirmed at 1,367 won in the morning and 1,374.20 won in New York trading. If dollar strength continues, crypto volatility in won terms could be greater than in dollar terms. Over the medium to long term, there remains potential for BTC’s scarcity narrative to reassert itself when concerns over fiscal expansion and fiat currency dilution come back into focus.
Šios kriptovaliutų silpnumo bangos pirmoji priežastis yra ne sektoriaus neigiamos naujienos, o su nafta susijęs diskonto normos šokas. JAV ir Irano konflikto gilėjimas → susirūpinimas dėl tiekimo trikdžių Hormūzo sąsiauryje → WTI iki 90,73 JAV dolerio, +5,80% → atsinaujinusios infliacijos baimės → JAV 30 metų obligacijų pajamingumas ties 5,274% aukštumomis ir DXY 99,65, +0,23%, o BTC nusileido iki 77 233 JAV dolerių, -1,68%, ETH iki 2 412 JAV dolerių, -2,22%, SOL iki 99,70 JAV dolerio, -3,20%. S&P500 -0,71%, Nasdaq -1,03% ir Nvidia -1,51% taip pat atspindi tą patį kontekstą. Auksui krentant -1,25% ir BTC silpstant -1,68%, matyti, kad BTC buvo prekiaujama labiau kaip nuo palūkanų jautrus rizikingas aktyvas, o ne saugus prieglobstis. Be to, BTC spot ETF po 9 prekybos dienų įplaukų grįžo prie 220 mln. JAV dolerių grynųjų nutekėjimų, o tai sustiprino pelno fiksavimą po pastarojo 23% kilimo ir nesėkmingo bandymo prasiveržti virš 82 000 JAV dolerių. Vis dėlto „BlackRock“ vedamos 217 mln. JAV dolerių įplaukos ir per 5 dienas į pasaulinius aukso bei Bitcoin ETF įplaukę 9,6 trln. KRW rodo, kad vidutinio laikotarpio institucinis paklausa dar tebėra gyva. Bendra rinkos kapitalizacija 2,62 trln. JAV dolerių, BTC dominavimas 59,12%, ETH 11,10% reiškia labiau BTC gynybinį telkimąsi nei kapitalo nutekėjimą. ETH papildomi 53 500 vienetų pirkimai ir SOL aukščiausi mokesčiai, „OpenSea“ parama bei planuojamas 20 mln. JAV dolerių pritraukimas fundamentaliai yra palankūs, tačiau dalis šių naujienų paskelbta po kainos nustatymo momento, todėl didesnė tikimybė, kad jos atsispindės kitame prekybos seanse. Trumpalaikę kryptį, tikėtina, labiau lems Vidurio Rytų rizikos plitimas, o ne ekonominiai duomenys. Jei WTI išlaikys 90 JAV dolerių ribą arba vėl pralauš 91,01 JAV dolerio lygį, atsivers kelias: naftos kainų įsitvirtinimas → lūkesčių infliacijos augimas → ilgalaikių palūkanų dar 5–15 bazinių punktų kilimas, o BTC prasiveržimas virš 82 000 JAV dolerių dar labiau atitolės, didėjant 76 500–79 000 JAV dolerių intervalo pakartotinio testavimo tikimybei. Tokiu atveju Nasdaq ir puslaidininkių sektorius gali kristi dar 1–3%, o kriptovaliutų rinkoje ETH ir SOL, palyginti su BTC, turėtų svyruoti su didesne beta. Priešingai, jei pasirodys konflikto sušvelnėjimo signalai, WTI gali atsitraukti iki 85–88 JAV dolerių, palūkanos stabilizuotis 5–10 bazinių punktų ribose, o BTC galėtų bandyti vėl įsitvirtinti 80 000 JAV dolerių zonoje. Vis dėlto euro zonos CPI 3,3%, JAV 30 metų obligacijų pajamingumas ties 5,274%, taip pat Pietų Korėjos 821 trln. KRW itin didelis biudžetas ir 162 trln. KRW ateities fondas obligacijoms yra nepalankūs, todėl atsigavimo tvarumas gali būti ribotas. Prekybininkams palankiau būtų reaguoti į diapazoną, o ne vytis kryptį. Jei ETF dienos pinigų srautai vėl taps teigiami, verta didinti BTC ir ETH svorį; jei WTI 90 JAV dolerių zonoje ir DXY stiprėjimas tęsis, prioritetu turėtų tapti altkoinų ekspozicijos mažinimas. Pietų Korėjos investuotojams taip pat svarbu, kad USD/KRW nuo 1 367 vonų ryte iki 1 374,20 vonos Niujorko sesijoje buvo patvirtintas aukščiau. Jei doleris ir toliau stiprės, kriptovaliutų svyravimai, skaičiuojant vonomis, gali būti dar didesni nei skaičiuojant doleriais. Vidutiniu ir ilguoju laikotarpiu, kai vėl sustiprės fiskalinės ekspansijos ir fiat valiutos nuvertėjimo baimės, BTC retų aktyvų naratyvas taip pat turi potencialo vėl sustiprėti.