📊 chard-mktboard

2026-07-07 08:35 KST · Daily Market Dashboard

Key Points

  • 실질금리 완화: 미국 고용 둔화로 달러와 국채금리가 내려가자 BTC·ETH가 주식과 무관하게 반등, 국내 기관도 거시 민감도를 높여 볼 구간입니다.
  • BTC 독자 강세: S&P500이 보합인데도 비트코인이 6만4천달러를 회복해, 금리 피크아웃 기대가 크립토 가격에 직접 반영되는 흐름이 확인됐습니다.
  • 기관 수급 분화: Strategy의 BTC 매도에도 가격이 버틴 반면 BitMine의 ETH 추가 매수는 기관 재무전략이 BTC 중심에서 ETH로 넓어질 가능성을 보여줍니다.
  • 규제명확성 프리미엄: MiCA 시행과 Clarity Act 기대가 겹치며, 규제 불확실성 축소가 향후 BTC ETF와 ETH 제도권 편입 수혜를 가를 핵심 변수로 부상했습니다.
  • 변동성 경계 지속: FOMC 의사록과 아시아 FX 불안이 남아 있어 BTC 6만3천~6만4천달러, ETH 1,800달러 부근에서 상단 추격보다 확인 매매가 중요합니다.
  • Real Rate Relief: As softer U.S. employment data pushed down the dollar and Treasury yields, BTC and ETH rebounded independently of equities, suggesting domestic institutions should increase exposure to macro-sensitive setups.
  • Bitcoin Outperformance: Even with the S&P 500 flat, Bitcoin reclaimed $64,000, confirming that expectations for a policy-rate peak are being directly reflected in crypto prices.
  • Institutional Flow Divergence: BTC held up despite Strategy's selling, while BitMine's additional ETH purchases indicate that institutional treasury strategies may broaden from BTC into ETH.
  • Regulatory Clarity Premium: With MiCA now in force and expectations building around the Clarity Act, reduced regulatory uncertainty is emerging as a key driver that could differentiate future benefits for BTC ETF and ETH institutional adoption.
  • Volatility Remains Key: With the FOMC minutes and Asian FX instability still in play, confirmation-based trading remains more important than chasing upside near $63,000-$64,000 for BTC and around $1,800 for ETH.
  • 실질inės palūkanos: JAV užimtumo lėtėjimas nusmukdė dolerį ir iždo pajamingumus, todėl BTC ir ETH atšoko nepriklausomai nuo akcijų, o vietos institucijoms verta didinti makro jautrumą.
  • BTC atskira stiprybė: nors S&P500 išliko be pokyčių, Bitcoin susigrąžino 64 tūkst. JAV dolerių ribą, patvirtindamas, kad palūkanų piko lūkesčiai tiesiogiai atsispindi kriptovaliutų kainose.
  • Institucijų srautų skirtis: nepaisant Strategy BTC pardavimo, kaina išsilaikė, o BitMine papildomi ETH pirkimai rodo, kad institucijų iždo strategijos gali plėstis nuo BTC link ETH.
  • Reguliavimo aiškumo premija: susidūrus MiCA įsigaliojimui ir CLARITY Act lūkesčiams, reguliavimo neapibrėžtumo mažėjimas tampa pagrindiniu veiksniu, galinčiu lemti būsimą BTC ETF ir ETH įsitvirtinimo institucijose naudą.
  • Svajrumo budrumas: išliekant FOMC protokolo ir Azijos valiutų rinkų neramumams, BTC ties 63–64 tūkst. JAV dolerių, o ETH ties 1 800 JAV dolerių lygiu svarbiau laukti patvirtinimo nei vytis kilimą.

Wavebridge View

BTC와 ETH 중심의 구조적 강세를 본다.

  1. 1 미국 고용 둔화로 달러와 미 국채금리가 함께 내려가며 실질금리 완화 기대가 크립토에 직접 반영돼 BTC와 ETH가 주식과 무관하게 반등하는 독자적 강세를 확인했다.
  2. 2 BTC 도미넌스 55.95%와 대형주 중심의 자금 배분, Strategy 매도에도 버틴 가격은 시장이 광범위한 위험선호보다 ETF와 제도권 수급을 더 신뢰하고 있음을 보여준다.
  3. 3 ETH는 BitMine의 재무 편입 확대와 MiCA·Clarity Act 기대가 맞물리며 단순 베타가 아니라 규제 명확성 수혜 자산으로 재평가될 여지가 크다.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
다만 월러 발언과 FOMC 의사록이 매파적으로 해석되거나 아시아 FX 불안과 유가 재상승이 겹치면 6만3천~6만4천달러와 1,800달러 부근에서 상단이 제한될 수 있다. 그 경우 이번 반등은 추세 전환보다 금리 피크아웃 기대에 기반한 단기 랠리로 되돌아갈 가능성이 크다.

We view the structural bullish case as centered on BTC and ETH.

  1. 1 as the slowdown in U.S. employment has pushed down the dollar and Treasury yields together, easing real-rate expectations have been directly reflected in crypto, confirming an independent rebound in BTC and ETH that is decoupled from equities.
  2. 2 BTC dominance at 55.95%, capital allocation centered on large caps, and the price’s resilience despite Strategy’s selling indicate that the market is placing greater trust in ETF and institutional flows than in broad risk appetite.
  3. 3 ETH has meaningful room to be re-rated not merely as a beta asset but as one benefiting from regulatory clarity, as BitMine expands its balance-sheet allocation and expectations build around MiCA and the Clarity Act.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
However, if remarks from Waller and the FOMC minutes are interpreted hawkishly, or if Asian FX stress and a rebound in oil prices coincide, upside may be capped around $63,000 to $64,000 for BTC and around $1,800 for ETH. In that case, this rebound is likely to revert to a short-term rally based on expectations for peak rates rather than a true trend reversal.

BTC ir ETH pagrindu matome struktūrinį stiprėjimą.

  1. 1 JAV darbo rinkai lėtėjant, kartu silpnėja doleris ir JAV iždo obligacijų pajamingumas, o mažėjančių realiųjų palūkanų lūkesčiai tiesiogiai atsispindi kriptovaliutose, todėl BTC ir ETH, nepriklausomai nuo akcijų rinkos, patvirtino savarankišką atšokimo stiprybę.
  2. 2 BTC dominavimas, siekiantis 55,95 proc., kapitalo paskirstymas į didžiąsias rinkos kapitalizacijos bendroves ir atspari kaina net po Strategy pardavimo rodo, kad rinka labiau pasitiki ETF ir instituciniu srautu nei plačiu rizikos apetitu.
  3. 3 ETH, kartu didėjant BitMine įtraukimui į balansą ir augant MiCA bei Clarity Act lūkesčiams, turi didelę galimybę būti perkainotas ne kaip paprastas beta turtas, o kaip reguliacinio aiškumo naudos gavėjas.
⚠ Risks & Caveats
Tačiau, jei Wallerio pastabos ir FOMC protokolai bus interpretuojami kaip griežti, o Azijos valiutų rinkų įtampa ir naftos kainų atsigavimas sutaps, kilimas ties 63 tūkst.–64 tūkst. JAV dolerių ir apie 1 800 JAV dolerių gali būti apribotas. Tokiu atveju šis atšokimas greičiau virstų trumpalaikiu ralio epizodu, paremtu lūkesčiais dėl palūkanų normų piko, o ne tikru tendencijos apsisukimu.

① Daily Snapshot

Crypto

AssetPriceDailyMTDYTD
Bitcoin $64,052.20 ▲ +0.79% +6.75% -27.81%
└ Volume $36.45B ▲ +99.51% -3.85% +93.35%
Ethereum $1,802.47 ▲ +1.09% +12.03% -39.93%
└ Volume $16.55B ▲ +46.13% +41.83% +61.14%
Solana $82.09 ▲ +0.82% +6.08% -35.24%
XRP $1.15 ▼ -0.93% +8.84% -39.02%
BNB $586.82 ▼ -0.36% +6.67% -32.01%

Macro

AssetPriceDailyMTDYTD
S&P 500 7537.43 ▲ +0.72% +0.72% +9.90%
NASDAQ 26121.16 ▲ +1.12% +0.31% +12.42%
DXY 100.86 ▬ -0.00% -0.53% +2.47%
Gold 4175.70 ▲ +1.53% +2.64% -3.21%
WTI Crude 68.81 ▲ +0.17% +0.34% +20.05%
KOSPI 8088.34 ▲ +5.76% -2.59% +87.68%

② Charts

BTC 30d
BTC · 30d
BTC Volume 30d
BTC Volume · 30d
ETH 30d
ETH · 30d
ETH Volume 30d
ETH Volume · 30d

③ Sentiment & Global

Fear & Greed
24 Extreme Fear
Yesterday 23
Total Market Cap
$2.30T
▲ +0.64%
24h Volume
$87.66B
Korea 5 share 1.07%
BTC Dominance
55.94%
ETH 9.47%
F&G 30d

④ Stablecoins (Market Cap)

AssetMarket CapDailyMTDYTD
USDT · Tether $184.30B ▬ +0.03% -0.18% -1.58%
USDC · USD Coin $73.05B ▬ -0.02% -0.58% -3.01%
DAI · Dai $4.85B ▬ +0.01% +0.05% +7.81%
FDUSD · First Digital USD $350.12M ▬ +0.00% +0.00% -32.19%

⑤ ETF Net Flow (source: bitbo.io)

AssetDateDailyMTDYTDLifetime
BTC 2026-07-07 $172.90M -$580.30M -$5.75B $34.79B
ETH 무료 ETH ETF flow 소스 없음

⑥ Exchange Volumes (24h Spot)

Global Spot CEX (Top 250)
$93.25B
CoinGecko aggregate
Korea 5 total
$998.05M
1.07% of total

Korean Exchanges

Exchange24h VolShareDailyMTDYTD
Upbit $651.38M 0.70% ▲ +17.34% -23.51% +9.63%
Bithumb $299.20M 0.32% ▲ +18.06% -23.53% +10.72%
Coinone $39.09M 0.04% ▲ +43.81% -11.25% -47.66%
Korbit $8.15M 0.01% ▲ +36.03% -30.54% +46.74%
Gopax $232.65K 0.00% ▲ +36.96% -14.30% -38.19%

Global Top 5

Exchange24h VolShareDailyMTDYTD
Binance $7.89B 8.47% ▲ +75.51% -15.44% +62.46%
Coinbase $1.53B 1.64% ▲ +109.32% -11.93% +85.32%
Bybit $1.52B 1.63% ▲ +88.21% -27.19% +84.77%
OKX $3.88B 4.16% ▲ +261.16% +103.07% +494.45%
Bitget $726.54M 0.78% ▲ +85.71% +0.47% +42.43%

⑦ Derivatives (Perpetuals)

CEX vs DEX Aggregate (source: CoinGecko · all-contracts aggregate)

CEX Aggregate OI
$156.44B
90 exchanges · 24h Vol $392.32B
DEX Aggregate OI
$13.93B
10 exchanges · 24h Vol $13.49B
DEX Share
8.17%
OI share · Vol share 3.32%

Top DEX Perp Exchanges

ExchangeOI (USD)24h VolPerp pairs
Hyperliquid (Futures) $10.42B $7.90B 370
Aster (Futures) $1.88B $1.93B 523
Lighter $830.97M $1.37B 198
edgeX $362.17M $172.35M 83
Ostium $174.33M $17.88M 44
ApeX Omni $114.71M $1.01B 351
Pacifica $88.59M $878.27M 69
dYdX Chain $49.19M $85.61M 120
Paradex $9.33M $9.42M 91
SynFutures $1.03M $110.89M 3

OI & Funding by Asset (source: CoinGecko · multi-exchange · APR assumes 8h funding)

AssetAggregate OIDailyMTDYTDAvg Funding (APR)
BTC $18.42B ▼ -2.44% +2.76% +9.42%
ETH $11.18B ▲ +1.92% +15.68% +6.66%

BTC · By Exchange (Top 5)

ExchangeSymbolOI (USD)ShareFunding (APR)
Binance (Futures) BTCUSDT $6.61B 35.87% +10.95%
Bybit (Futures) BTCUSDT $3.51B 19.05% +10.95%
Bitget Futures BTCUSDT_UMCBL $2.19B 11.91% +6.46%
KuCoin Futures XBTUSDTM $1.82B 9.86% +5.48%
Binance (Futures) BTCUSDC $1.16B 6.31% +10.95%

⑧ Today's Drivers & Outlook

이번 반등은 주식 동행보다 실질금리 완화 기대가 크립토에 직접 전달된 흐름이다. 미국 고용 둔화 → 달러·미 국채금리 하락 → 추가 긴축 우려 완화 → BTC·ETH 반등이 핵심 경로였다. BTC는 $61,395에서 $64,434까지 반등해 $64,199로 올랐고, ETH도 $1,731에서 $1,822를 거쳐 $1,805를 기록했다. 같은 기간 S&P500 7,537, 나스닥 26,121, DXY 100.86은 보합이어서 크립토 독자 강세 성격이 더 짙다. 금 $4,177 강세와 WTI $68.72 안정은 성장 둔화와 금리 피크아웃 기대를 반영했고, BTC를 고베타보다 거시 헤지 자산으로 재평가하게 만들었다. BTC 도미넌스 55.95%, ETH 도미넌스 9.47%, 시총 $2.30T, 거래대금 $88.69B는 대형주 중심의 방어적 리스크온을 보여준다. Strategy의 BTC 3,588개, $216M 매도에도 가격이 버틴 점은 ETF와 제도권 수급 기대가 개별 매도 충격을 흡수했음을 뜻한다. 반면 BitMine의 ETH 42,000개, $73M-74M 추가 매수는 Clarity Act 기대 → 규제 명확성 개선 → 기관 재무 편입 확산의 초기 신호다. 유럽에선 MiCA 시행, Ripple의 완전 라이선스, 벨기에의 무허가 6곳 경고가 병행돼 허가 사업자 중심의 스테이블코인·온체인 유동성 재편을 예고한다. 다음 방향은 7월 8일 FOMC 의사록과 FX 변동성이 결정할 가능성이 크다. 의사록이 고용 둔화와 추가 긴축 신중론을 확인하면 금리 5-10bp 추가 하락 → DXY 100선 테스트 → BTC $64,434 상단 돌파 후 2-4% 추가 반등이 가능하다. 이 경우 ETH는 규제 명확성 프리미엄까지 더해 BTC 대비 상대강도 우위를 이어갈 수 있다. 반대로 월러의 정의된 반응함수와 인플레 경계가 재확인되면 달러-엔 162엔 상향, USD-KRW 1,537원 재시험, BTC는 $63K-64K 안착 실패 뒤 $61,395 하단 재확인 가능성이 크다. 특히 달러-엔 161.934엔, 일본 30년물 금리 급등, 원화 1,531원은 아시아 FX 불안이 아직 살아 있음을 뜻해 알트에 더 불리하다. 중동 평화 유지 시 WTI $68.72 안정 → 금리 피크아웃 기대 유지 → BTC ETF, ETH 재무 편입, MiCA·Clarity 정책 프리미엄이 함께 작동할 수 있다. 반면 유가 재상승은 인플레와 금리 상방을 동시에 자극한다. 트레이더는 BTC $63K-64K 지지 여부와 ETH $1,800 안착을 기준으로 대응하되, 시장 데이터 기준 이후 나온 뉴욕 금리 하락과 의사록 경계 뉴스는 아직 미반영일 수 있어 다음 세션 양방향 변동성에 대비하는 것이 유효하다.
This rebound was driven less by equity correlation and more by the expectation that easing real yields would be transmitted directly into crypto. The key path was slower U.S. job growth → lower dollar and U.S. Treasury yields → easing concerns over additional tightening → rebound in BTC and ETH. BTC rebounded from $61,395 to $64,434 and rose to $64,199, while ETH also moved from $1,731 to $1,822 and recorded $1,805. Over the same period, the S&P 500 at 7,537, Nasdaq at 26,121, and DXY at 100.86 were all largely unchanged, suggesting a stronger standalone bullish character in crypto. The strength in gold at $4,177 and the stability of WTI at $68.72 reflected expectations of slowing growth and a peak in interest rates, prompting a reevaluation of BTC as a macro hedge asset rather than a high-beta asset. BTC dominance at 55.95%, ETH dominance at 9.47%, total market cap at $2.30T, and trading volume at $88.69B indicate defensive risk-on positioning centered on large caps. The fact that prices held despite Strategy’s sale of 3,588 BTC worth $216M implies that ETF and institutional demand expectations absorbed the impact of individual selling. By contrast, BitMine’s additional purchase of 42,000 ETH worth $73M-$74M is an early signal of the Clarity Act theme → improved regulatory clarity → broader adoption of institutional treasury allocation. In Europe, the implementation of MiCA, Ripple’s full license, and Belgium’s warning to six unauthorized firms are proceeding in parallel, signaling a restructuring of stablecoin and on-chain liquidity around licensed operators. The next move will likely be determined by the July 8 FOMC minutes and FX volatility. If the minutes confirm slowing employment and caution about additional tightening, an additional 5-10bp decline in yields → a test of DXY 100 → a breakout above BTC’s $64,434 upper bound followed by a further 2-4% rebound would be possible. In that case, ETH could continue to outperform BTC on a relative basis, with an added premium from regulatory clarity. Conversely, if Waller’s reaction function and inflation concerns are reaffirmed, USD/JPY could move above 162, USD/KRW could retest 1,537, and BTC may fail to hold above $63K-$64K and retest the $61,395 lower bound. In particular, USD/JPY at 161.934, a sharp rise in Japan’s 30-year yield, and KRW at 1,531 suggest that Asian FX instability remains alive, making altcoins even more vulnerable. If Middle East peace holds, WTI’s stability at $68.72 → continued expectations of a peak in rates → BTC ETFs, ETH treasury adoption, and the MiCA and Clarity policy premium could work together. Conversely, a renewed rise in oil prices would simultaneously pressure inflation and yields to the upside. Traders should respond based on whether BTC support at $63K-$64K and ETH’s hold above $1,800 are maintained, but the New York yield decline and minutes-related cautionary headlines that emerged after the market data cutoff may not yet be reflected, making it prudent to prepare for two-way volatility in the next session.
Šis atšokimas labiau nei su akcijų judėjimu susijęs su lūkesčiu dėl realiųjų palūkanų švelnėjimo, kuris tiesiogiai persidavė į kripto rinką. JAV užimtumo sulėtėjimas → dolerio ir JAV iždo obligacijų pajamingumo kritimas → papildomo griežtinimo baimės sumažėjimas → BTC ir ETH atšokimas buvo pagrindinė grandinė. BTC atšoko nuo $61,395 iki $64,434 ir pakilo iki $64,199, o ETH taip pat pakilo nuo $1,731 iki $1,822 ir užfiksavo $1,805. Tuo pačiu laikotarpiu S&P500 7,537, Nasdaq 26,121 ir DXY 100.86 iš esmės nepakito, todėl kripto savarankiško stiprumo pobūdis yra dar ryškesnis. Aukso kaina, siekianti $4,177, ir stabilus WTI $68.72 atspindėjo augimo lėtėjimo ir palūkanų piko lūkesčius, o BTC paskatino perkainoti ne kaip aukštos beta rizikos turtą, bet kaip makro apsidraudimo turtą. BTC dominavimas 55.95%, ETH dominavimas 9.47%, rinkos kapitalizacija $2.30T ir prekybos apyvarta $88.69B rodo gynybinį rizikos prisiėmimą, sutelktą į didžiuosius aktyvus. Tai, kad Strategy pardavus 3,588 BTC už $216M kaina vis tiek išsilaikė, reiškia, jog ETF ir institucinio kapitalo srautų lūkesčiai absorbavo pavienį pardavimo šoką. Tuo tarpu BitMine papildomas 42,000 ETH, už $73M-74M, pirkimas yra ankstyvas signalas, kad lūkesčiai dėl Clarity Act → didesnio reguliacinio aiškumo → institucinio įtraukimo į balansus plėtros stiprėja. Europoje MiCA įsigaliojimas, Ripple pilna licencija ir Belgijos įspėjimas šešiems neautorizuotiems subjektams kartu rodo, kad leidimus turinčių dalyvių centruojama stablecoinų ir grandinės likvidumo pertvarka jau prasideda. Tolimesnę kryptį, tikėtina, lems liepos 8 d. FOMC protokolas ir FX svyravimai. Jei protokolas patvirtins užimtumo silpnėjimą ir atsargesnę poziciją dėl papildomo griežtinimo, galimas tolesnis 5-10 bp palūkanų kritimas → DXY 100 lygio testas → BTC prasiveržimas virš $64,434 viršutinės ribos ir dar 2-4% atšokimas. Tokiu atveju ETH, papildomai gaudamas reguliacinio aiškumo premiją, galėtų išlaikyti santykinio stiprumo pranašumą prieš BTC. Priešingai, jei bus iš naujo patvirtinta Wallerio apibrėžta reakcijos funkcija ir infliacijos budrumas, dolerio ir jenos kursas gali kilti iki 162 jenų, USD-KRW gali dar kartą testuoti 1,537 vonos lygį, o BTC po nesėkmingo įsitvirtinimo virš $63K-64K gali vėl testuoti $61,395 apačią. Ypač dolerio ir jenos kursas ties 161.934 jenos, staigus Japonijos 30 metų obligacijų pajamingumo šuolis ir vonos kursas ties 1,531 rodo, kad Azijos FX įtampa vis dar gyva, todėl altkoinams tai yra dar nepalankiau. Jei Artimuosiuose Rytuose išliks taika, WTI stabilumas ties $68.72 palaikys palūkanų piko lūkesčius, o kartu gali veikti BTC ETF, ETH įtraukimas į balansus, taip pat MiCA ir Clarity politikos premijos. Priešingai, naftos kainų atsinaujinantis kilimas vienu metu skatintų ir infliaciją, ir palūkanų kilimo riziką. Prekiautojai turėtų remtis BTC $63K-64K palaikymo lygiu ir ETH įsitvirtinimu virš $1,800, tačiau rinkos duomenų pagrindu vėliau pasirodęs Niujorko palūkanų kritimas ir protokolo atsargumo naujienos dar gali būti neįskaičiuotos, todėl verta ruoštis abipusei kitų sesijų svyravimo dinamikai.